Time to Rise, Time to Fall
As is the case with every young season, this year has already had its share of teams and players who are performing well ahead of – or well behind – schedule. Players maintaining Ovechkin-esque scoring paces who are most certainly not Ovechkin-esque, teams stringing together more wins in the first two weeks than people predicted they’d get all year, teams failing to get a win, period, etc.
So who are this year’s big overachievers so far, who has underachieved, and who might actually maintain?
Overachievers
Coyotes and Avalanche – You really can’t talk about one of these teams without mentioning the other. Both have had somewhat tumultuous summers, albeit one much more tumultuous than the other, and both were penciled in for next year’s draft lottery. So what do they do right out of the gate? They start winning.
• Colorado: Believe it or not, the Avs are somehow, in some bizarre way, leading the entire Western Conference right now. They cut a blazing swath through the Northeast Division (not that it’s hard, but still) on a recent road trip and upset the President’s Trophy-winning Sharks on opening night. They’re near the top of the league in goals scored, near the bottom in goals allowed, and have gotten incredible goaltending from one Craig Anderson.
• Phoenix: Good lord. They weren’t even supposed to still be in Phoenix, let alone win games there. Instead they’ve also gotten tremendous play in net by Ilya Bryzgalov, shut out the reigning Cup champs in Pittsburgh (…heh), and are 3 points off of Western-leading Colorado in a conference that’s packed tighter than a bunch of hockey-playing sardines. There’s an image for you.
So…yeah, this isn’t going to last. It’s nice for a couple of fanbases who could use some good news and there are promising signs that the season won’t end in total devastation (good goaltending being a major one)…but neither has enough firepower or a strong enough blue line, and the rest of the West will probably catch up eventually. Honestly, though? I kind of hope I’m wrong, especially for the Coyotes’ sake.
Dany Heatley – He’s off to the best start of his career (as Ottawa fans look on in futile frustration), and chances are he’ll continue to put up numbers considering the talent surrounding him – but this 12 points in 9 games thing is a little out of reach for the petulant one. After he settles in a bit more, a point-per-game pace sounds about right for Heatley.
Atlanta’s Power Play – Through an admittedly very small sample size of games (someone please explain to me how they’ve only played 5 games) the Thrashers are clicking at 37.5% with the extra man. 37.5% – in 16 tries they’ve had 6 goals. Place your bets now on how quickly that falls now, folks. Ridiculous. And yet it’s not the most ridiculous special teams stat…
Columbus’s Penalty Kill – …this is. The Blue Jackets have been shorthanded 24 times through 6 games and have allowed just one power play goal. That, for you math-disabled out there (or those incapable of looking up the stats like I did) is a penalty-killing efficiency of 95.8%. Oh, and they’ve scored twice shorthanded, too.
New York Rangers – Of all of the overachievers listed here, this might be the team that might not actually tumble all that much. They’re certainly not going to maintain the pace they’re at now, which has them tied w/ the Penguins atop the Atlantic – but they’re getting good goaltending and, unlike last year, are winning games in regulation and scoring goals. Granted, 11 of their goals came in 2 games against the Leafs…but still. And yet it’s hard to see them as a contender just yet.
Underachievers
Boston – JP hit the nail on the head earlier today; that Kobasew trade was as much a shot across the bow for an underperforming team as it was a salary dump/pick grab. Over the last year I’ve been of the mindset that the Bruins should not have been as good as they were this past season – there’s just no reason I could see beyond a simple luck of the draw, when everything clicks for a team. At the same time, there’s no reason for them to be wallowing out of the top 8 after such a great year last year, either.
Vincent Lecavalier – How does Vinny not have a goal yet? Goals aren’t always a good litmus test for how fast or slow a season is starting, but come on now – Lecavalier scores goals. It’s what he does. It’s the same reason people were questioning it when Ovechkin didn’t score for a bunch of games at the start of last season. Of course, taking him off a line with St. Louis might have been Tocchet’s first mistake…how you ever break them up, especially given the other options on that team, is beyond me.
Vancouver – The Canucks were one of the surprise division leaders last year, coming from behind to scare the bejeezus – and the Northwest crown – out of the Flames. With some new faces (and some familiar ones locked up) they were supposed to be one of the teams to beat this year. And now they are…but not in a good way. Their three wins have come via the shootout over Dallas, in a stomping of Montreal (like it’s hard) and a 2-1 victory over the Wild (again, like it’s hard). Way underachieving for where they should be, for sure.
Mike Green – This is kind of a tongue-in-cheek entry on the list, mostly because I know it’s what others are saying. Yes, one goal in the first 8 games is not a lot for a guy with 31 goals a year ago. But Green is also playing some pretty decent hockey – pretty decent defense, actually – and really that’s what the Caps are paying him to do. It’s not like the team doesn’t know how to score.
Eric Staal / Simon Gagne – You can pretty much say the same for both guys – 2 goals (Staal) and 0 goals (Gagne) is not good enough for either one. Period. Slow starters? We’re almost a tenth of the way through the season, time to wake up. Of course, waiting until after they play the Caps is perfectly fine.
New York Islanders – Okay, wait, before you run off in disgust, I have a good reason. Sort of. The fact is that the Islanders finally have an NHL-caliber goalie – a few, actually – and they also have this kid named Tavares and a slew of young talent behind him. It’s not that they should be leading the league or even their division or even cracking the top eight, because they’re going to be bad this year. No wins, though? Granted, there are a few shootout losses to good (or “good”) teams amid that winless record…but still.
Maintenance Men
Toronto – What, you actually thought they’d be good this year? Feisty, yes. Penalty-prone, absolutely. But good? Ha! No goaltending, little offense to speak of, and the lesser half of many a successful defensive pairing will always equal one of the worst starts in franchise history. But don’t worry, Leafs faithful – Kessel will be back in November…and then you really get to see what underachieving looks like.
Los AngelesDespite finishing the season near the bottom of the league last year, there was a sense that the Kings were a young team with plenty of potential and a scrappy, hardworking nature. So far this year they’re just above .500, which puts them right on the playoff bubble – a place they might actually be as the season comes to a close, as well.
Alex Ovechkin – Sure, he’s probably not going to finish the season at a 2 point per game pace. But he won’t be far off, not the way he’s playing right now. It’s not just the sheer number of shots he’s getting…that’s always a constant, as is the physical play. But he’s hitting the net with greater accuracy, or it seems like he is, and he’s learning to use his teammates, whether to set up plays or to screen the goalie. Meanwhile the defensive side of his game is not only not suffering – it’s improving.
Yeah, like this was going to end without a little hometown bias.
[...] A View from the Cheap Seats: Time to rise, time to fall. While it is still early there are quite a few surprises already this young 2009/10 season. [...]
Pingback by IllegalCurve.com » Blog Archive » Nightly Hockey Hits: Top Ten Don Cherry quotes, Leafs coach Wilson frustrated at not getting through to his players, Tortorella blames goalie for bad Rangers loss, Will NHL choose bottom line verse National Pr — October 20, 2009 @ 7:05 pm
The Rangers broke fast last year, too — 10-2-1 in October. Then they hung on for dear life, finishing two points ahead of ninth-place Florida. They’ll go as far as Henrik Lundqvist’s talent and Marian Gaborik’s health take them.
Comment by The Peerless — October 21, 2009 @ 6:11 am
Yup – the Rangers have been pulling this for a couple of seasons now. What makes me a little nervous this time around is that they’re actually scoring goals and they’re winning in regulation. As I recall last year’s fast start was due to a lot of 1-goal, shootout slugfests.
Of course, not nervous enough that I don’t still consider them overachievers.
Comment by CapsChick — October 21, 2009 @ 9:07 am